Phillip Buckley

What’s been happening in the fourth tier of English football this season? Tucked away well beneath the Premier League, League Two has been remarkable in terms of results so far this season. Ask any bettor, well, ask anyone who knows about football, and they will tell you that home clubs have an advantage in any game. The home advantage in football is well known, but in League Two it’s being literally blown apart this season.

The bedrock for football success has for a long time been the notion that you make your home a fortress. The thinking goes if you can win your home games and pick up a few points on your travels, you will have your fair share of success. Indeed all the great sides, in no matter what division, in no matter what country, have all succeeded in making their home grounds a fortress. Opposing teams have dreaded walking down the tunnel to play at Anfield and seeing the famous “This is Anfield” sign. The players often felt beaten before a ball had been kicked. Throughout the 90s this was then replicated at Old Trafford, but look beyond the big boys and any team doing well gets a reputation as being “a hard place to go and get a result”.

In the division directly above League Two, League One, the traditional theory is being played out. A look at the top of the table reveals Carlisle United sitting in 2^nd place in the table, indeed a surprise to many who thought they would be mid-table at best. What has their success this season been based on? Yes, their home form. Carlisle have won a huge 17 times this season out of 20 games at home. They went on a record-breaking 14 consecutive home victories run that only ended a week ago when Nottingham Forest managed to win 2-0 at Brunton Park. Carlisle do have a get out for that result however as they were missing 3 first choice forwards for the game. In the next home game they got back to winning ways, duly dispatching Yeovil 2-1 and clocking up that 17^th home win.

Out of the 24 team League One, 21 clubs have more home wins than away wins, with one club having an equal number. In the Championship the figure is 19 with more home wins (3 level) and in the Premier League it is 17 (2 level).  But look down to League Two and the number of teams with more home than away wins is just 11. 11 out of a 24 team league.

Milton Keynes Dons, who sit 2^nd and look certainties for automatic promotion have won just 10 times at home this season, but, managed to record no fewer than 16 victories on their travels. In fact 13^th placed Rotherham have won an equal amount of times at home.

League Two seems to be out of place with the traditional order of things in football. In more than 167,000 matches that have been played in the English Football League since records began in 1888, the number of home victories is more than double the amount of away wins (87,656 home wins, 39.051 away wins). The ratio for all you stats lovers out there is 2.24 home wins compared to away wins.

As of the 5^th April (2008) the stats for this season show that there have been 184 away wins compared to 182 home wins, but the situation has improved for teams playing at home recently. As of the 10^th March, the figure was 167 away wins to 149 home wins. Amazingly we’ve seen one matchday (2^nd Feb) with nine away wins, and three others (25^th Aug, 29^th Dec and 23^rd Feb) with eight, quite unprecedented. League Two may still finish the season with more home than away wins, but whatever happens it will still be a long way short of the traditional average.

Why is this happening? The answer is that no-one seems to know. The Football League Head of Communications John Nagle said “It really is quite remarkable that after so many seasons and so many matches that this should suddenly happen in the current League Two campaign”. Nagle doesn’t have an answer for why, “There’s no obvious explanation as to why it has occurred now, but it certainly does demonstrate how competitive the division is”.

Considering the competition competitive is certainly one way of looking at it, but this could imply a poor quality of play just as much as it could imply a high standard. Perhaps teams are simply learning to play without fear. As they have secured one away victory, be it by pure luck or just skill, the fear factor has disappeared and players have thought “why not?” to victory away from home. Rochdale manager Keith Hill certainly tries to instil this in his players, “What we do is play with an attacking formation and without fear. I’ve always said that unless you are prepared to go away and win there is no point getting on the coach”.

Whatever the case may be this has been an exciting division for away fans and football bettors alike. Away supporters have been used to travelling more in hope than expectation, more often than not having to make the long journey home with not even a single point for comfort. This year is different to say the least and it brings another explanation for this season’s trend. Barnet boss Paul Fairclough thinks that financial factors could be a reason. “It is most likely that clubs at our level are trying harder to entertain at home because of the need to attract more supporters”. This Fairclough believes leads teams to “become attack minded and maybe open up a bit more”.

Bettors, if they have been able to predict the unpredictable, although as the season has worn on away wins have become predictable, been able to fill their boots. Away teams are nearly always available at larger prices than home teams, and this has been especially true in League Two.

Down at the bottom there should really be no reason why some sides should win more at home than away, a fact Hill agrees with. “There is an equal opportunity to win any game be it home or away”. We should remember that the gap in quality (between teams) is not that great, the defences not that good and the crowds not that large as to be intimidating.

We could be seeing a change in the tide of lower league results. Or maybe this is a freak season, a blip amongst the usual reliable torrent of home wins? There is though something refreshing about League Two’s unpredictability, the unexpected nature of the results, and I for one hope it continues.