Jon Karlsson

Euro 2008 like the World Cup in 2006 will offer many great betting opportunities. We will of course be giving you our tips for individual games, but often the biggest opportunities for profit lie in so called ante-post betting, that is, bets on the final outcome of the tournament or group winners etc.

Let’s take a look at the individual groups and what my favoured bets for them would be.

Group A

Portugal are of course the favourites to win this group, and rightly so. At a price of 6/5 (2.20) they look a decent bet, but I have the feeling that they are overrated. The Portuguese are a very good side, but both the Czech Republic and Turkey will give them hard games, while Switzerland will be hard to break down.

My favoured selection for this group would be Turkey. They are considered the least favourite side in the group which amazes me. The Turks have many flair players but also some steel too. They can be awful at times, but equally, can compete with anyone in the tournament. Led by and in-form Nihat and with wily old Fatih Terim in charge, I just can’t rate either an aging Czech side, or a workman like Swiss team above them.

Recommended Bet: Turkey to qualify at 9/4 (3.25)

Group B

Germany dominate the betting for this group as you would expect, and it’s hard to grumble with Croatia to advance with them. The Germans should win the group, but 8/13 (1.62) is a poor poor price.

Poland could cause an upset or two, but Leo Beenhakker’s side should see of the hosts. Austria are a truly awful side and not at all classy enough for this tournament. It is possible home advantage could inspire them, but no matter how partisan the crowd, they cannot suck the ball into the net.

Recommended Bet: I cannot see beyond Austria to finish bottom of this group. At 8/13 (1.62) it should be taken.

Group C

The group of death is not one to get too closely involved with. In truth anything could happen. All the teams can beat each other on their day and though most see France, Italy and Holland as very clear favourites, it isn’t always as clear cut as that.

Think of it like this, if you were backing a team to win the Premier League, you might take Manchester United to do the business over 38 games. However, what if the Premier League season were just 3 games? With so few games to hit your stride, recover from a bad performance or just have your players find form, it could be a very different story. That’s why the price for Italy to qualify at 4/9 (1.44) is a silly risk of a bet, but equally why Romania at 3/1 (4.0) is value.

Recommended Bet: The odds are stacked against them and they probably won’t make it, but Romania at 3/1 (4.0) is surely worth a small bet. They did beat Holland in qualification remember.

Group D

Spain should win this group, that much is true, but it won’t be easy, and I wouldn’t touch the 4/5 (1.80) on offer. Russia, Sweden and Greece can all be hard to beat and retain their shape well under pressure. So Spain are by no means a certainty to even qualify and to see them flop again wouldn’t be a surprise.

Sweden are workman like but lack any real killer creative touch to open teams up. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has not lived up to his billing either on the international of Champions League stage, and Henrik Larsson is very dependant on service. Greece could spring a shock, but scoring goals is a real worry for them, and a final friendly draw against Armenia (0-0) highlighted this yet again.

Russia under Hiddink look a good side and just because many of their players are unknown, means they shouldn’t be underestimated. They don’t have amazing firepower, like Greece, but, ironically, I think they could be the new Greece, hard to break down and winning by a single goal.

Recommended Bet: Russia to qualify from the group at 11/10 (2.10) looks a steal. Hiddink’s men may not get much further but they can negotiate this tricky group.

Top Goalscorer

This market can always be relied upon to throw up a few surprises. Who could have guessed that Milan Baros (40/1), unable to score at club level, would walk away from Euro 2004 with the Golden Shoe?

Given the nature of the market you must take Each Way with all bets here, and luckily that means if your man finishes in the top 4 then you’ll get a decent return.

In such an open competition where injury can ruin your man’s chances, the main short priced favourites should be avoided. I’ll be taking the following Each Way:

Mario Gomez (Germany): Gomez is the Germans most in-form striker. Forget Klose, he has been useless in the Bundesliga this season, Gomez is the man and if Germany progress in the tournament he has a good shout at the Golden Shoe. At 16/1 (17.0) he is a good price too.

Franck Ribery (France): Ribery has scored regularly for Bayern Munich this season and the boy knows how to finish. With the way France play Thierry Henry is likely to be the only target man to start. Ribery will join the attacks and at this price, 50/1 (51.00), can’t be ignored for an Each Way bet.

Nihat (Turkey): Nihat has done well in Spain with Villarreal and he will be Turkey’s main threat in the tournament. The Turks should play and open attacking style and this pacey striker should get good chances. The reason his price is so big is probably because many don’t expect the Turks to go through. I do, and I think Nihat will get on the scoresheet. 66/1 (67.00) is a good price.

Outright Winner

Always very difficult to predict before the tournament and it may be best to wait until you’ve seen the team you fancy play at least once.

Looking at it now though, it would be silly to back any team from the group of death (France, Italy, Holland) as any one of them could easily go out early.

The one bet I will have before the tournament is Turkey Each Way as because I feel they will qualify they will drop in price if they do. I’ve taken the 50/1 (51.00) on offer.

Final Thoughts

There should be more consistent ways to make money by prediciting the outcome of individual matches, but it’s always nice to choose a winning bet before even a ball has been kicked and you get far better prices if you’re right. That is a way to show you really do know your stuff!

All odds taken from bet365