England

Phillip Buckley

As the new Premier League season approaches there is one thing we can be sure of. Just as much as one team will be crowned champions and three other will fall through the trapdoor, there will be managerial casualties. How many managers will not be sitting at their desk come May is anyone’s guess, but while for some the odds will be stacked against departure, indeed, they’d probably have to sleep with the Chairman’s wife to get the bullet, others will be nervously looking over their shoulder.

So who are those we should consider untouchable? Sir Alex Ferguson? Arsene Wenger? Luiz Filipe Scolari? Well, Alex Ferguson must be untouchable. A Champions League and Premier League double, combined with his already impressive record, mean a bad season at Old Trafford would probably be written off as a blip. Even total disaster, for United that would mean missing out on the Champions League, wouldn’t culminate in his sacking. Ferguson has been spoken about as a future Chairman of the club, albeit more of a figurehead than powerbroker. So if the Scot ever did fail badly, he’d probably be shuffled off upstairs. 

Arsene Wenger can be considered equally fireproof. The Frenchman is a legend at the Emirates and could hold his board to ransom if he so wished. However, he would never do so, he is a board of directors’ dream of a manager. One who produces results, and records regular healthy profits on player sales. Wenger also has a relatively young side, and thus any blip of a season could be put down to kids learning their way. Only a fool would dispense with Wenger at this stage in his construction of a new era, and if there is one thing the Arsenal board aren’t, it’s fools.

In this era of big money perhaps just Ferguson and Wenger are totally fireproof. However, the next group of bosses are also unlikely to find themselves sacked.

Steve Bruce and Gareth Southgate are both in very fortunate positions. Wigan and Middlesbrough do not expect great things and at both clubs there is a feeling that this is the start of the managers’ era, not the end. At Wigan and Middlesbrough sensible chairmen rule. Steve Gibson and Dave Whelan believe in giving their managers time and neither will be pushed into pressing the trigger in haste. In fact, if one, or both, were relegated, it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see Southgate and Bruce start 2009/10 still in charge of their respective clubs.

Also unlikely to go is Martin O’Neill. O’Neill has appeared to develop an excellent relationship with his American Chairman, Randy Learner, and given both men’s appreciation of the time it takes to build something special, O’Neill could afford a truly bad season and still be in situe come the summer. He’s also been well backed in the transfer market, but, most of all, despite the fact he knows his Chairman has significant personal wealth, has not launched any campaigns pressurising him for extra cash. Learner will appreciate the way O’Neill acts, and the Northern Irishman will be safe.

Still in this group it would appear that Harry Redknapp and Roy Keane are relatively safe. Redknapp is of course a hero at Portsmouth after bringing the club the FA Cup last season. Further signings mean it’s unlikely he’d find himself in trouble anyway, but even if he did, Redknapp’s status is such that the board would think twice about dismissing him.

Keane meanwhile has the all important backing of Sunderland’s powerbrokers, and, although he is sometimes outspoken, Keane has the aura of a manager who offers much more to come. Sunderland would have no trouble sticking with Keane through a bad season and little reason to believe he would not repeat his earlier successes and gain them promotion from the Championship again. His emphasis on teamwork combined with a no-nonsense attitude make him very popular with the club’s supporters. 

Another manager not in imminent danger must be Liverpool’s Rafael Benitez. Benitez support is not what it once was with Liverpool fans, but those who disapprove are still within the minority rather than the majority. At Liverpool managers get time, and plenty of it. It may surprise many to know that there was still a large section of the support within Anfield in favour of giving Gerard Houllier one more season at the end of 2005, by which time it was clear the wheels had come off his TGV.

Benitez also benefits from a very vocal group of supporters who oppose the club’s American owners. The squad the Spaniard has at his disposal means he’ll more than likely be able to secure a top four finish again (even though the route to the group stages of the Champions League will be much harder for the teams finishing 3rd and 4th from next season) which would keep him in a job. Indeed, it is worth remembering that not just do Liverpool rarely move managers on, but they almost never do it mid-season. Benitez could endure a very bad campaign and still only have to worry about his job in the summer.

Alongside Benitez, a fellow Spaniard Juande Ramos seems very well trusted by Chairman Daniel Levy (Tottenham). It is hard to picture Spurs ending the Spanish revolution before it has begun, but perhaps it is worth pointing out that relegation battles focus the mind. That isn’t to suggest a relegation battle is what awaits Ramos and you could place a pretty hefty bet on him being at White Hart Lane next season, but, the Spurs board have shown they can be ruthless when it comes to managers. Ramos can expect more leeway than most though, given the early stage of his reign and the trouble he’s had in the transfer market, mainly losing key players such as Robbie Keane (Berbatov is of course expected to leave too).

Across London from Ramos, at Stamford Bridge, another new arrival is settling in to Premier League life. Luiz Filipe Scolari does not immediately come to mind when you think of the "sack race", but then, remember who he works for. The reason many would assume he’s going to be safe, or, at least safer than some, is quite simply because he’s a very good coach, and so should have Chelsea competing. When you take into account that the average Avraam Grant was able to keep them near the top of the league, Scolari should have no trouble with that squad. The Brazilian though is hot headed, even more than Jose Mourinho was. A row with Roman Abramovich, a back me or sack me demand, or some media tantrum, cannot be ruled out. So Scolari could yet be a surprise winner of the "sack race".

For this next group of managers, the sack is but games away, get a poor start, a run of 10 or so winless games, and the axe could fall.

Paul Ince is someone you’d expect Blackburn to give time to and show faith in. But, there have already been rumours of dressing room unhappiness. A number of players have let it be known they are less than impressed with his training techniques, and don’t feel he shows them the respect they deserve as Premier League footballers. Losing the dressing room is one of the worst things that could ever happen for a new manager, just ask Paul Sturrock (Southampton) and Sammy Lee (Bolton).

The same situation could be said to exist at Bolton Wanderers. Boss Gary Megson is still disliked by a fair few Wanderers fans, with many just looking for an excuse to rebel. The feeling also persists that he has not yet totally won over the dressing room and Megson can be abrasive, rubbing people up the wrong way at times. His managerial history is one of making enemies. Get off to a poor start, or alienate a key player, and Megson could be heading to the job centre. 

Both Alan Curbishley and Roy Hodgson at West Ham and Fulham respectively, are not on the edge of the abyss. However, both work for foreign chairmen who will not be afraid to pull the trigger. Rumours that the West Ham hierarchy are not impressed with Curbishley have been strengthened by their reluctance to give him much money to spend, always a sign of trouble. Fulham owner Mohammed Al Fayed was grateful for Hodgson’s work to keep them up last year, but he will not take any chances if Fulham begin the season as Hodgson’s Blackburn did in the year of his dismissal from Ewood Park.

Yet another boss who may have to worry about his chairman is Kevin Keegan. As with Curbishley and Hodgson, it is unlikely that fan revolt would be the cause of Keegan’s exit. Every other week stories appear in the newspapers saying how Keegan felt he would have far far more financial backing in the transfer market when he took the job. Continuing rumours that Chairman Mike Ashley is seeking to sell the club are another destabilising influence. Some may say it is more likely Keegan would walk than be sacked, but with no compensation for resigning it would be a silly course of action.

Tony Mowbray at West Brom should think himself safe, but with the club having worked so hard to get up to the Premier League again, will they take chances if they are right down the bottom of the table from the very beginning? Survival is paramount for West Brom, and if Mowbray looks incapable of providing it, they will bring in someone else, like they did with Bryan Robson who kept them up a few years back.

Over at Everton there is no way David Moyes should be down at this end with the more likely men to get the sack, but things within Goodison Park are complicated. Worries over a new stadium, a lack of transfer funds, and the departure of the chief executive. All these spell trouble. Moyes is not a happy man and doubtlessly would blame a season of struggle on his board’s lack of backing in the transfer market. How could the board respond? Yes, by opening the door

The next three bosses though must be rated as the most likely to win the "sack race". Phil Brown at Hull, Mark Hughes at Manchester City, and Tony Pulis at Stoke City.

Brown faces a hugely difficult job at Hull, but they will still be expecting the side to put up a fight. A pre-season 4-1 loss away to lowly Crewe Alexandra doesn’t inspire hope that they can. If Hull start very badly, as they could, and by badly I mean losing every game in the first few months, the board may feel forced to act. The fans would be wishing they could avoid becoming another Derby County, and the new boss would need to be in place for the January window.

Mark Hughes meanwhile swapped the relative safety of Blackburn Rovers, for the uncertainty of the City of Manchester Stadium. The writing is on the wall for Hughes before a ball has even been kicked. Sven Goran-Eriksson worked wonders last season after having an amazingly short time to buy players in the summer (some were even purchased on video evidence such was the lack of time), but still this was not enough. Outplaying champions Manchester United to prove City’s progress also meant nothing. Working on the whim of a billionaire is always risky, but Thaksin Shinawatra seems even worse than Roman Abramovich.

The final member of this group of favourites is Stoke City’s Tony Pulis. Pulis has managed to get Stoke back up the top flight for the first time since 1985, but are Stoke fans happy? No! Stoke supporters have never warmed to Pulis’s style of play, a long-ball game than would make Bolton wince. Even following promotion if a straw poll was conducted it would be no surprise if the majority of Potters fans wanted Pulis’s head. Start badly and a revolt is sure to follow. Given that it has taken so long for Stoke to climb back up the league ladder, could they risk sticking with a manager that threatened to quickly take them back down? Surely opting for a proven Premier League manager would become a very attractive option.

It is said that in management the only thing certain is the sack, and judging by previous seasons and the big money nature of football now, more than one of the above bunch will be gone before Christmas. Who it will be is anybody’s guess. But for those who guess right (and back it up with a small bet!) the "sack race" can be an entertaining and profitable league all of its own. Whilst you may spare a thought for the poor men who will lose their jobs, remember, in today’s football, even failure is rewarded with millions. Such is modern football management!

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