England

Liam Barnes

After Gabriel Agbonlahor raced through and scored the second goal at the Emirates on Saturday afternoon, and secured a surprisingly comfortable win for Aston Villa against Arsenal, many people will have been re-evaluating their opinions about the race for fourth spot in the English Premier League. Some have been boldly predicting Villa may even usurp the Gunners’ position as Champions League qualifiers, and more outlandish theories point to the rising power of Manchester City, a resurgent Tottenham and a possible takeover at Everton as signs that, after the best part of a decade, the tyranny of the “Big Four” will be over.

This seems a tad presumptuous. How can Spurs expect to move ahead of their arch-rivals with a worse team, less money, and more unstable foundations? If Everton get the takeover they desire, how will they go about finishing ahead of Liverpool for the first time in five years? City are still City, the club with the biggest capacity to self-destruct, and the global marketing giant of their near neighbours means that it will be extremely difficult to remove them from their pre-eminent position, especially having to contend with Chelsea and perhaps other mega-rich clubs (QPR’s £20 billion could be up in the big league next year). Even Villa, the best placed club, with a rich owner, canny manager, loyal fans and a strong history, will struggle to establish themselves in the upper echelons of the Premiership.

This is not just sheer cynical, fatalistic pessimism. Villa may be level on points with Arsenal now, but they play the reigning champions this weekend – with their smaller squad also suffering from the international week more so than usual – and cannot be expected to win, especially given the track record of recent years, totalling 13 defeats on the spin and four FA Cup defeats in seven years. Arsenal, meanwhile, play a Manchester City team with no wins in their last four games, and whilst Robinho and Co. will probe extensively at the suspect centre-backs, City have an even weaker defence facing an equally ominous task. Should the form book be realised, Villa are back to square one.

Saturday is evidence that Aston Villa are moving forward under O’Neill, that they are a slick passing team who on their day can play the best in the country and the continent, that this summer’s heavy spending, in addition to blossoming talent in the likes of Agbonlahor and Young, shows the strategy is working. But the previous Sunday, a defeat (albeit an unlucky one) at home to Middlesbrough, and the previous Monday’s sloppy loss to the Geordie asylum show that the squad, short of true strength in depth, is being stretched by the extended season (the Inter-Toto campaign started in July, a month before the league), that defensive frailty is still prevalent, and that shock results are not always to one’s advantage.

Arsenal have been inconsistent this year, with so many poor performances and points thrown away already, and are practically out of the running for the title. They haven’t won anything for three seasons, and unless they get scant consolation in a domestic cup competition, it will be four. In the league particularly, they are nowhere near the invincible showmen they once were – yet when have they truly been in danger if dropping out of the Champions League places? Once. Spurs nearly pipped them in 2005/06, but fell to West Ham after a mysterious case of food poisoning. The best chance was blown.

Arsenal have since matured from that troubled last season when Thierry Henry’s Gallic gloom was overshadowing the young tyros, and they have some sparkling youth players, particularly Wilshere and Vela, about to wreak havoc on Premier League defences like they did to Wigan last week. Should Arsene Wenger rectify their defensive insecurities by signing a solid centre-back and/or a holding midfielder (Lassana Diarra would have been useful now had they kept him), Walcott, Fabregas and Nasri will have a much more tough core from which to start their kaleidoscopic attacks.

Basically, it will need Villa to have a great season, in conjunction with Arsenal to implode, for the “Big Four” to be broken up this season – I can’t see anyone else putting up a fight this year, unless Man City buy a few referees to go with their expected super signings. What about next season? City certainly will be a force, as most likely will Villa, and Everton and Spurs could shake things up as well, but it is too far ahead to conjecture with any authority.

Even if City sign Torres, Kaka and Messi, whether or not they would lead them to the title is a moot point, and Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United will also add to their already imperious outfits, so this could be money for nothing. Arsenal, the most vulnerable of the four, have plenty of youngsters coming through, and have money to buy the players they need, with the likely caveat of Champions League football to make any young star think twice before doing a Robinho and following the pound signs over trophies and glory.

How come, one may ask, is the task facing City and Villa different from Chelsea’s five years ago? Well, because when Abramovich made “Chelski”, he inherited a strong team already in the Champions League, with three of England’s best players, and then added a few needed magical elements – flying wingers, solid midfield grafters, a trophy-laden, less jumpy manager – to gatecrash the Arsenal-Man Utd duopoly of the previous 10 years. Yet that was when his was the only oversized yacht moored in the Premiership, and his starting point was wedged in the door of the élite, not on the outside looking in. City, Villa, Everton, Hull, whoever – it’s a much tougher proposition now.

The problem has been made worse by the Champions League, which has given the top clubs such a huge financial advantage over the others that the Premiership has become a trophy for the few lucky to be at the top of the table when the money came pouring in. This allows these clubs to buy the best players and scout the best prospects, which further buttresses their nigh-on unassailable position at the helm.

There is also absolutely no point looking at other European leagues. I’ve read various newspaper columnists note how Spain has seen Atlético Madrid, Villareal, Sevilla, Celta Vigo, Valencia, Deportivo La Coruña and Osasuna all qualify for the Champions League alongside Barcelona and Real Madrid, and see this as evidence to prove Champions League money does not equate to stifling national competition; some point to Hoffenheim’s current success in their first season in the Bundesliga, or Napoli and Udinese’s good efforts at the summit of Serie A as further empirical data supporting this. Well, Udinese and Napoli both lost on Sunday, leaving the two Milans and Juventus atop once again, and Barça and Real have won the league all but three times since 1996/97, so they are hardly being thrown off their perch Liverpool-style.

The Premier League has been dominated from the onset by big money, and the biggest teams have so many advantages, such as loaning out their young players to lesser clubs, or a more sophisticated (one could say rapacious, if you look at how Fabregas ended up at Arsenal, or Chelsea’s behaviour) scouting system, in addition to more money, trophies and quality players, that make it harder to break through.

Despite all this, though, it still is possible to see change coming. Villa have an excellent academy, churning out talents such as Agbonlahor, Barry, Cahill, Ridgewell and the Moore brothers in recent years. So do City (see Richards, Sturridge and Ireland) and Everton (Osman, Anichebe, Rooney). City’s finances surely will change the face of the league in the next few seasons. A bit of luck, perhaps a stellar signing, maybe another obscenely wealthy owner joining the league – it won’t stay this way forever, change could come soon. But even with that win at the Emirates, with Young flying, Laursen dominating and Agbonlahor scintillating, it still looks a monumental struggle to stay in touch, let alone overtake, Arsenal or their cohorts in their feudal football élite. At least for now.