As in politics, in the upper echelons of football, it is a slippery slope, and many long, hard grafts for the top are undone by one unfortunate slip.
After another embarrassing home defeat, in this case a highly painful 3-2 reverse at the hands of their arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge is in danger of petering out before the New Year, as it has on frequent occasions in over a barren five seasons without a trophy. With the lingering inability to play against direct and physical sides like Chelsea still prevalent, an added loss of a golden touch against a resurgent and entertaining Spurs side, and three home defeats in the league already, have heaped the pressure on The Gunners in what was always going to be a do-or-die season.
Arsenal are still in a strong position to try and win the league, being only two points off the top, behind a stuttering Chelsea, and uninspired Manchester United and with Manchester City still not walking the walk. Such a small step to the summit is a highly useful vantage point to regroup for the ascent, and as several defeats were perhaps unlucky, coming in games where they dominated and created plenty of chances, but paid for profligacy in front of goal, the basis for a long unbeaten run is there. Yet Arsenal are still only third-favourites behind the diminished powers of Chelsea and United, such is their habit for losing the key games, and this perceived fragility says a lot about both the character and the achievements of the squad in recent seasons.
In addition to a dodgy domestic standpoint, their expected progress in Europe has halted somewhat – a lazy loss away to Braga on the back of a reverse at Shakhtar Donetsk, both of whom they hammered at home earlier in the group stages. Arsene Wenger’s men are still overwhelming favourites to qualify, and are amongst the favoured half dozen for the Champions League crown, behind the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United, Real Madrid and Barcelona, but alongside Bayern Munich and the two Milan sides. In reality though, the Emirates Stadium outfit have been beaten comfortably when first facing a top side in the last three campaigns (Barcelona last year, Manchester United before that and then Liverpool), and a possible run to the semi-final, with a second-placed finish at home would constitute a good showing; progression from last year slightly above most people’s expectations.
However, green shoots of recovery are not enough anymore, and thus the onus is on Wenger’s side to defy punters’ predictions and bring home some sort of silverware this year, or several grim scenarios could unfold.
The biggest consequence of another year without a trophy – be it by an inch or a mile – will be the inevitable sale of Cesc Fabregas back to his beloved Barcelona. When Xavi spoke of Arsenal only holding their captain “on loan”, it wasn’t an arrogant assumption, and for much of this summer it had seemed likely that last year’s failures would have been enough to see Fabregas return to his hometown club, having served his adopted home and footballing father with seven years of loyal and valuable service. Essentially, the only way Arsenal are going to keep hold of the Spaniard for a few more years is if they win trophies. And such success must come immediately in compensation for the captain’s respectful behaviour this summer, when his desired transfer was thwarted (it compares favourably to Wayne Rooney’s dealings with United to improve his contract or Steven Gerrard’s flirting with Chelsea five years ago). The FA Cup and possibly even the Carling Cup may work this season as a harbinger of better times to come, but without a league or European title it is hard to see the Catalan catalyst returning to North London after Euro 2012.
If Fabregas goes in the next summer or two, with the club shorn of its star player and captain, what would this mean for those left behind? Jack Wilshere and Theo Walcott may be two players inclined to stay, as would several of Wenger’s favoured few from the academy, but established stars such as Samir Nasri, Andrei Arshavin and Robin van Persie may decide to capitalise on interest from continental suitors and jump ship.
A noticeably weaker and less experienced Arsenal squad will not help recruitment either, with mooted targets such as Liverpool keeper Pepe Reina unlikely to swap one ailing giant for another. And, most ominously for Gunners fans, where would such an exodus lead the man who guided them to the Promised Land? Arsene Wenger may have made noises about staying for the rest of his footballing life, but the length of that is debatable for a man of 63, and whether or not the Frenchman would have the appetite to rebuild another team around a different group of talented youngsters only to see another club reap the benefits is questionable.
Of course, Arsenal’s prudent transfer dealings and huge (stadium) revenues means that they are well-placed to meet the introduction of the Financial Fair Play rules to be brought in the season after next, much more so than any of their principle rivals. Also, within the club’s strong academy and scouting system they could discover a new Fabregas, or a whole class of available talent à la Manchester United 1996 to rifle them to the title, should they not surge to success this season. But with Man City’s serious challenge less of a likelihood and increasingly an inevitability, the prime opportunity to lift the Premier League title that has proved so elusive would be now, before the galacticos of Eastlands gel, whilst Spurs are raw and as Man Utd and Chelsea’s squads are as vulnerable as they have been for years. The most competitive and evenly matched league for over a decade has lowered the bar required to win, just as the stakes have raised higher for The Gunners and their frustrated fans, and wasting this window of opportunity could prove significantly damaging to long-term plans for glory.
The top of the pole is about to get greasier, with more grasping hands reaching to get a good grip, and failing to seize it now could see the footballing aristocrats fall in with the also-rans scrapping beneath.
