What: Champions League – Round of 16
Who: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
When: Tuesday 19th February, 2013, at 19:45 UK Time
Where: Emirates Stadium, London, England
Daunting Task For Gunners
Arsenal continue their search for a first Champions League crown knowing that their best hope of lifting the trophy is to finish in England’s top four and start again next year. Defeat to Blackburn on Saturday means their FA Cup hopes are over for this year, and seemingly, the club’s last realistic chance of silverware.
This has been an inconsistent season for Arsenal and they have not been their usual selves even in Europe, where they are traditionally strong in the group stage. The last German side to visit the Emirates Stadium, Schalke, ended a long unbeaten run at home in Europe for Arsenal. Bayern Munich, who thrashed Schalke at the weekend and are out of sight at the top of the Bundesliga, appear to present a formidable task which it is hard to see the Premier League side passing. However of Arsenal’s last seven home games with German opposition, they have won all but the Schalke tie and have yet to lose a knockout game at home to non-English opposition in the Champions League era.
But then there is always Chelsea. That is probably the best way for Arsenal to motivate themselves ahead of this tie, by reminding themselves that however unlikely it is that they will win the Champions League this year, it was just as unlikely that their London rivals could have won the competition at the same point last year.
Arsenal do play a very different style from Chelsea though, which could make the comparison irrelevant. Lukas Podolski and Per Mertesacker know Bayern Munich well; the former used to play for them. And Arsenal’s forwards are in good form, Santi Cazorla, Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott looking impressive in recent weeks. But none has starred in quite the same way as Jack Wilshere, the young prodigy whose ability to control midfield is the biggest cause for optimism for Arsene Wenger’s men coming into this tie.
Ruthless Bayern Munich Develop Unstoppable Momentum
Bayern Munich are on track for a record-breaking season at present, lying 15 points clear of champions Borussia Dortmund, with the earliest Bundesliga victory in history in their sights. They have not let in a goal in since 14th December, having conceded just seven goals in 22 league games, a remarkable rate, and struck 57; Bayern Munich have been absolutely ruthless at home. They have barely shown a chink in their armoury as they have pummelled opponents into submission.
Yet the Bavarians have been even better away from home, where they have dropped just two points in the league and conceded just one goal all season, underlining their counter-attacking potential. With Pep Guardiola arriving this summer, it is hard to see how exactly he can improve this remarkably efficient and attractive football machine.
Bayern Munich have unfinished business in Europe though. They have traumatic memories of their last meeting with a team from London, that defeat at home to Chelsea on their own ground in last year’s Champions League final which is still impossible to understand for the German side, having dominated so thoroughly throughout. Having also finished runners-up in 2010, the perfect riposte for the Germans would be to lift this season’s trophy in London at Wembley in May.
They have lost on their last four visits to England though and have never won in London. In the group stage, Bayern Munich were stunned by Belarusians BATE Borisov, although they eventually qualified with plenty to spare. Jupp Heynckes’ side have scored in their last 12 games in Europe and if they do so again here, it will make Arsenal’s task all the harder.
Recent form
Arsenal:
Arsenal 1-0 Stoke City (01/02; Premier League)
Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal (08/02; Premier League)
Arsenal 0–1 Blackburn Rovers (15/02; FA Cup)
Bayern Munich:
Mainz 0-3 Bayern Munich (09/02; Bundesliga)
Bayern Munich 4-0 Schalke (09/02; Bundesliga)
Wolfsburg 0–2 Bayern Munich (15/02; Bundesliga)
Key absences
Arsenal: Nacho Monreal; Kieran Gibbs
Bayern Munich: Javi Martinez (doubt); Holger Badstuber; Jerome Boateng; Claudio Pizarro
Players to watch
Arsenal – Jack Wilshere: Wilshere is approaching his best again and has been in particularly impressive form in recent weeks. The 20-year-old is the brightest light in this Arsenal team and is the player who will be most important to them in this particular clash. Two years ago Wilshere proved he can live with the very best of his generation when he dragged Arsenal to victory at home to Barcelona, showing himself to be a match for the mercurial Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Wilshere is a curious blend of the Barcelona template, small, technical and able to play inch-perfect passes, always making the right decision, combined with Steven Gerrard’s ability to surge past opponents and turn a game on his own. The young Englishman is his team’s best way to victory in this game.
Bayern Munich – Mario Mandzukic: It is no mean feat to keep out a striker who struck 41 goals for Bayern Munich last season and has netted 25 goals in 26 Champions League starts, but that is what Croatian forward Mandzukic has done since arriving from Wolfsburg last summer. He scored against his old side at the weekend, and as the Bavarians’ top scorer so far this season, Mandzukic has been an excellent reference point up top for the club, linking the play superbly with Toni Kroos, Franck Ribery and Thomas Muller behind him. He can exploit the gaps in the Arsenal defence.
Match Prediction
This game could be similar to the classic Arsenal vs Barcelona clashes of recent years. Both sides like to play in a similar way, keeping the ball and moving it at pace, looking for gaps in their opponents’ rearguard. Bayern Munich’s superior personnel should give them an edge and they will likely enjoy the territorial advantage.
Another factor which seems to favour the Germans is that whilst they conceded the fewest shots on target in the group stage, Arsenal were the team who had the fewest efforts on goal. Wenger’s side were the most efficient at converting shots on target to goals though, and should be a bit more creative with his midfield back on form after a sluggish autumn.
If Javi Martinez is out, that will also help Arsenal, but much will rest on Wilshere’s ability to run the midfield for the home team. If he does that, then Arsenal have a chance. But Bayern Munich’s variety is a danger – they have had nine different goalscorers in the Champions League this season. Having beaten AC Milan and Barcelona at home at this stage in the last two years, Arsenal have enough about them to breach Bayern Munich’s defence, but keeping out their forwards is another question entirely. Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich.
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