What: FIFA Confederations Cup – Group A
Who: Mexico vs Italy
When: Sunday 16th June, 2013, at 20:00 UK Time
Where: Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Wrong Kind of Consistency for Mexico

Coming into the Confederations Cup, Mexico will be looking to improve and find their spark quickly after a strange 2013 so far, as their qualification campaign for Brazil 2014 has stuttered. In all Mexico have drawn eight of their last nine games, yet are unbeaten in 13 overall.

The unease was palpable in their last qualifier against Costa Rica, where the Mexican crowd grew restless and began to boo the team, some even calling for coach Jose Manuel de la Torre to quit. Mexico seem to have lost some of their spark in the final third, unable to capitalise on pressure by finding a creative route through massed defences. It may well be that they benefit from playing teams who will open up and come at them in the Confederations Cup.

The clash with Italy is an early test of Mexico’s credentials, as they bid to emulate the 1999 team who won the Confederations Cup on home soil. They have never kept a clean sheet against the Azzurri and have won just once in 11 meetings, although that victory came in their last encounter in 2010. Mexico will hope that they can get Andres Guardado, Javier Hernandez and Giovani dos Santos into positions from which they can hurt the Italians.

Cesare Prandelli Ponders Tactical Changes

Cesare Prandelli’s Italy come into this tournament, as they did last year’s European Championship, pondering tactical dilemmas. A year ago it was whether to play a back three or four. Now Prandelli is pondering dropping one forward for a second attacking midfielder, thus switching from a 4-3-1-2 to a 4-3-2-1.

Such a move seems to be prompted by concern over Italy’s physical condition, which Prandelli admitted was not good after their most recent game, a friendly with Haiti that they drew 2-2. Italy remain reliant on Andrea Pirlo, whose skills are showing sign of strain with his advancing years, yet he remains a key force. One forward being dropped would also mean that Stephan El Shaarawy would likely miss out and drop to the bench.

This is a fairly experimental Italy side in many respects, with Alessio Cerci and Antonio Candreva in the Italian set-up. Emanuele Giaccherini may even get a start in the Mexico game. This is the place to conduct tactical experiments, at a major tournament a year before the World Cup, and Italy look set to use the Confederations Cup for precisely that.
 

Recent form

Mexico:
Mexico 0-0 Costa Rica (11/06; World Cup qualifying)
Panama 0-0 Mexico (07/06; World Cup qualifying)
Jamaica 0-1 Mexico (04/06; World Cup qualifying)

Italy:
Italy 4-0 San Marino (31/05; Friendly)
Czech Republic 0-0 Italy (07/06; World Cup qualifying)
Haiti 2-2 Italy (12/06; Friendly)

Key absences

Mexico: None

Italy: Stephan El Shaarawy (doubt)

Players to watch

Italy – Claudio Marchisio: The Juventus man has been linked with a move away from the Italian champions this summer but will be looking to show he remains at home in the national side. Marchisio tends to rotate with Riccardo Montolivo in Prandelli’s fluid midfield formation as the advanced playmaker. But he could play in the attacking berth from the start against Mexico. Marchisio is a great all-round midfielder who pops up in dangerous areas of the pitch to catch opponents on the back foot. He could be the Azzurri’s key threat going forward.

Mexico – Andres Guardado: One of the more experienced men in De la Torre’s squad, he will be a key figure in this encounter for ‘El Tri’. His pace and technical ability make him perhaps the most direct player in the Mexican set-up going forward and possibly the man most likely to provide them with the creativity they have been missing of late. His forays forward will help keep Ignazio Abate occupied and prevent his own rampages into Mexican territory.

Match Prediction

Italy usually play an attacking system but the signs are that the country’s inherent tactical pragmatism is coming out with Prandelli’s experimentation with formation. Mexico, many of whose players ply their trade domestically, could actually be fitter than Prandelli’s side if the Italian coach’s words are anything to go by. Mexico could well therefore dominate the ball and get a territorial edge.

Italy will look to hit Mexico on the counter attack with the pinpoint passing of Pirlo, who will celebrate winning his 100th cap, and Riccardo Montolivo. They could get some joy but Mexico have been quite solid themselves of late, even if they haven’t created as much as they’d like.

Mexico should benefit from playing in Brazil – they may well have been affected by an anxious home crowd in recent qualifiers, and so the chance to get away from that pressure could liberate De la Torre’s men. Still, as has been the case in so many of their recent games, Mexico could just find themselves involved in yet another draw. Italy’s approach suggests caution and that spells a tight if entertaining draw between two good technical passing teams. 1-1.

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